- What initially looked like the start of a potential rally before Cable’s strongest month ended up as a breakdown in structure, dropping eight places in the currency strength matrix, and a confirmed lower high on the daily.
- Where we go from here is now uncertain with another parliamentary vote taking place on April Fool’s Day.
- Intraday trades remain attractive until more clarity can be reached on what will happen with Brexit.
- The price action is not very clean on smaller time frames. Safe buy and sell zones are highlighted on the chart.
- The expectation last week was a last push up on this pair before a major turnaround. After a long struggle, price tested and retested 1.3440 – 50 multiple times, failed to break and subsequently tanked.
- We can now see a confirmed double top on the four hour and a potential double top forming on the daily time frame.
- Reviewing the latest COT data, Non-commercials have started increasing longs while coming out of short positions which is a sign that the CAD strength is set to continue.
- On the currency matrix, CAD has rocketed up four places.
- With supportive seasonals, COT data and a potential weekly lower high forming, it looks like the Monthly Downtrend Phase 1 is now in play.
- There is a potential short entry at the 1HR 200 SMA should price retest back there. Otherwise, look for sell trades on smaller time frames should price continue falling.
- It was an up and down week for the Aussie with price briefly popping its head below the daily trendline before settling above on Friday.
- My bias remains bullish on this pair and I would like to see price rally before the main seasonal bottom in Mid – May.
- I will be looking to buy on the first break and retest in the blue zone.
- At the start of the week, price had already bounced off the upper weekly trendline before moving back down. This was the third failed attempt but the subsequent reaction during the week was more of importance.
- We had already seen the second reaction was less compared to the first attempt. The third reaction end up being less than the second. This is an indication that buyers are beginning to slowly take over as they try to smash up through the strong celling.
- Just like the Aussie, the main seasonal bottom is in Mid – May so again I would like to see a rally in the coming weeks.
- There is a potential inverted head and shoulders pattern forming on the four hour and I will look to go long on the first break and retest in the blue zone.